With the University of Wisconsin now being re-missioned to serve the workforce demands of the corporations which own and operate state government and the UW System, it might be a good time for us to stop and reflect about those “promising tech careers of the future” which the young people are being prepared to enter.

How many years will pass, before those promising tech careers are merely the “formerly-promising careers of the recent past,” as the juggernaut of computerization, hyper-productivity systems such as artificial intelligence (or just “dumb robots) render redundant, many of those employed?

How susceptible is your near-future job to computerization? Check in with Oxford University’s study and get some insight.

THE FUTURE OF EMPLOYMENT: HOW

SUSCEPTIBLE ARE JOBS TO

COMPUTERISATION?

∗

Carl Benedikt Frey

†

and Michael A. Osborne

‡

September 17, 2013

.

Abstract

We examine how susceptible jobs are to computerisation. To assess this, we begin by implementing a novel methodology to estimate the probability of computerisation for 702 detailed occupations, using a Gaussian process classifier. Based on these estimates, we examine expected impacts of future computerisation on US labour market outcomes, with the primary objective of analysing the number of jobs at risk and the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerisation, wages and educational attainment. According to our estimates, about 47 percent of total US employment is at risk. We further provide evidence that wages and educational attainment exhibit a strong negative relationship with an occupation’s probability of computerisation.

∗

We thank the Oxford University Engineering Sciences Department and the Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology for hosting the “Machines and Employment” Workshop. We are indebted to Stuart Armstrong, Nick Bostrom, Eris Chinellato, Mark Cummins, Daniel Dewey, David Dorn, Alex Flint, Claudia Goldin, John Muellbauer, Vincent Mueller, Paul Newman, Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh, Anders Sandberg

, Murray Shanahan, and Keith Woolcock for their excellent suggestions.

†

Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 1PT

, United Kingdom,

carl.frey@oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk.

‡

Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, O

xford, OX1 3PJ, United King-

dom, mosb@robots.ox.ac.uk