“and I pointed out there were ten deadly drivers of this disruption and economic deficiencies.
This started after the Global Financial Crisis, but they are being exacerbated by this Coronavirus crisis.
1. Things like tax deficits and default.
2. Poor demographics is going to be a big liability.
3. Or initially deflation, followed by debasement of currencies as we monetize the fiscal deficits; we’re going to end up, eventually with inflation.
4. We have features of disruption with A.I. and automation.
5. And then, rising inequality.
6. And then you have de-globalization, as there is a backlash against trade, immigration and open markets.
7, And then you have a democracy backlash.
8. And then from there you go to this duopolistic rivalry between the U.S. and China,
9. and the digital rivalry between U.S. and China as well.
10. And you finish with deadly, manmade disasters like pandemics and climate change–they’re not natural disasters, but as we know are manmade.
You combine these ten forces–and they’re all very disruptive–and you might have, eventually, a greater depression. But this is not the story for this year or next, but for the middle of the decade.”
Update, end September, 2021
In the ongoing series of posts on “Our economy deteriorating,” we would like to include additional drivers of the Greater Recession–
11. Secular stagnation of wages in our economic system, a risk factor for collapse and
12. The world oil shocks / world energy shocks scenarios about to roll out at mid-decade, from mid-2025 onward. These scenarios will make it difficult-to-impossible to re-start the “growth engine” which for 120 years has been fueled by growth in fossil fuels consumption.
A Dozen Deadly Drivers of economic crises. No community, no county, no state will avoid these crises. We had all better begin to prepare for a wholly different world ahead.
Who is Nouriel Roubini?
Nouriel Roubini (born March 29, 1958) is an American economist He teaches at New York University’s Stern School of Business and is chairman of Roubini Macro Associates LLC, an economic consultancy firm.
The child of Iranian Jews, he was born in Turkey and grew up in Italy. After receiving a BA in political economics at Bocconi University, Milan and a doctorate in Intenational Economics at Harvard, he became an academic at Yale and a visiting researcher/advisor at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and Bank of Israel. Much of his early research focused on emerging markets. During the administration of President Bill Clinton, he was a senior economist for the Council of Economic Advisers, later moving to the United States Treasury Department as a senior adviser to Timothy Geithner, who was Treasury Secretary under Barack Obama.