Peak oil freaks (like us!) will “get” this story released just yesterday, March 8 2016, Bloomberg News via NewsMax, excerpted, link below block quote). Note that this EIA estimate of daily production, 8.2 million barrels a day, is a full 300,000 per day lower than the EIA estimate in the story from just one week ago.
“U.S.crude production will fall to its lowest since 2013 next year as battered shale drillers idle rigs to conserve cash, according to a government report.
“Producers from Texas to Alaska will pump 8.19 million barrels a day in 2017, down from 8.67 million this year and less than the 8.46 million previously forecast, the Energy Information Administration said in its monthly Short-Term Energy OutlookTuesday. The forecast for crude output in 2016 was also cut, from 8.69 million estimated in February. The decline won’t be enough to boost crude prices beyond last year’s level, though, according to the EIA estimates.”
Expect the political pressure for more fracking (and Wisconsin frac-sand) to increase as the oil & gas industries realize that peak oil production is happening again, and apply pressure on their purchased politicians. It’s a desperation move, not a sign of robust economy.
Peak oil freaks (that’s us!) have a special way of reading oil and gas industry stories. For example, what we gleaned from this story about “oil and gas production ramping up in the Gulf”
“This comes as EIA forecasts a decline in total U.S. oil flow, from an average of 9.4 million barrels per day in 2015 to 8.7 million barrels per day in 2016 and 8.5 million barrels per day in 2017.”
In other words, while the story predicts 0.3 million barrels a day increase from the Gulf, a total decline from 9.6 million at Twin Peaks II (late 2014, not the 2015 average) down to 8.5 million in late 2017, in other words a decline of 1.4 million from all non-Gulf of Mexico projects.
In other other words, a decline of 1.4 million primarily from fracked oil fields, of which there are only four of significance to consider.
It looks a lot like Peak Oil Part Deux.
Oil, gas production ramping up in the Gulf: Here’s why
This article notes that
“The government agency projects Gulf production will average 1.63 million barrels per day in 2016 and 1.79 million barrels per day in 2017, reaching an all-time high of 1.91 million barrels per day in December 2017.
At those rates, production from the waters in this ocean basin will account for 18% of total U.S. oil output in 2016 and 21% in 2017, according to EIA.
This comes as EIA forecasts a decline in total U.S. oil flow, from an average of 9.4 million barrels per day in 2015 to 8.7 million barrels per day in 2016 and 8.5 million barrels per day in 2017.”